The strong objection of the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egebtokun to the state police legislation in the works at the National Assembly should not be dismissed ordinarily. And here is why: The IGP who was a chief security officer (CSO) to Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu now President Tinubu is remarkably educated. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics from the University of Lagos. Besides, he is a holder of an M.Sc degree in Engineering Analysis and a PGD in Petroleum Economics from the Delta State University and an MBA from the Lagos State University. It is on record too that the Erinja-born officer of Yewa South Local Government Government Area of Ogun state also lectured Mathematics briefly at the Yaba College of Technology, Lagos before joining the police force.

So his views cannot be dismissed as part of the effects of ‘any-howness’ and hollowness we see in public affairs commentaries these days. What is more, it should get us curious that a former CSO to the current president is the biggest voice against a policy that the president, former presidents, more than 20 governors and many stakeholders across platforms have agreed to legalise in Nigeria – to tackle insecurity that has diminished the stature of Africa’s most populous country. Who can deconstruct any suggestion that a Mathematical Egbetokun is afraid of state police and better security? Is Egbetokun who can be daubed an intellectual in charge of the Nigeria police force also among those who are afraid of restructuring Nigeria and her police force that isn’t working at the moment? Or should we run away with a conspiracy theory that there is a game (on) between the presidency that has aligned with a consensus that the Nigeria police should be decentralised? Can one draw some salient lessons from what happened in 2017 when the presidency of the then Muhammadu Buhari had through Acting President Yemi Osanbajo submitted the name and credentials of Ibrahim Magu to the Senate for confirmation as Chairman of the EFCC after almost two years in office as Acting Chairman? We can recall as if it were yesterday that the then Director-General of the Department of State Security (DSS) Malam Lawal Daura who hails from Buhari’s hometown Daura, had then twice written to the then Senate under the leadership of Senator Bukola Saraki on why officer Magu, then an Assistant Commissioner of Police should not be confirmed.

The Senate didn’t ignore the petition of the state security chief and so declined conformation, although Buhari defied the Senate and kept Magu in office till the end of 2021 without the legal conformation. There was a debate then on the game that was on: whether the then President Buhari who was then in the United Kingdom on medial vacation was aware of the two deadly petitions against Magu by the DSS. There was a school of thought then that Buhari’s silence at the time didn’t help matters but the ignominious end of the same Magu confirmed the fact that President Buhari and his Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami weren’t in support of the nomination of Magu to the Senate by the then Vice President Osinbajo. There was this leaked intelligence then that Magu was actually recommended to the presidency by elements from the Palace of Oba of Lagos. The Oba of Lagos was an AIG in the police force where the predecessor to Magu, Ibrahim Lamorde served him, (Oba of Lagos) as an ADC. Decent sources had then claimed that Lamorde actually facilitated the nomination of Magu and that was the origin of the trouble with Magu, this column raised many questions about (from 2015-2021).

What then can we claim here? Is Egbetokun reading the body language of the President who may be playing the Daura game for the purpose of delaying the state-police till a time that 2027 game plan would have been secured? What is the ‘Mathematical Egbetokun’ helping the Artful Dodger of our time to calculate?

Doubtless, whatever is being calculated by the mathematicians at the police headquarters in Abuja, the urgency of state police in Nigeria has become obvious to many stakeholders. It is an idea the 2027 politics should not be made to trump. Beyond the engagements with stakeholders, as it has been suggested several times, President Tinubu and stakeholders should ensure that the state police is achieved this time, no matter whose ox is gored.

The origin: on Monday last week, Egbetokun loudly rejected the proposal for state police at the National Dialogue on State Policing organised by the House of Representatives in Abuja. He strangely argued that Nigeria is not ripe for state police and expressed fears that it would be abused by governors for personal and political gains, thereby leading to human rights violations and stoking ethnic tensions. He claimed he feared that the states would not be able to pay the salaries of officers. But as the Rorarians would ask: Is that the whole truth? Is that a fair comment on the robust funding the 36 states have been helping with?

While some of these arguments can’t be dismissed, Egbetokun should not throw out the baby with the bathwater. There have been several reports commissioned by the post –colonial governments, beginning with The Gobir Report (1968), which have confirmed that the Nigeria Police Force have always been underfunded and abused by leaders.

Already, 20 out of 36 state governors have expressed support for it at the National Economic Council. The states are beginning to understand that no development can occur without security, which the federal police can’t handle at this time.

It is however gratifying to note that another mathematical former IGP, Sunday Ehindero who also studied Mathamatics at the University of Ibadan before joining the police force where he also read Law, has lent his voice to the voices of reason for state police. He has just mathematically countered his junior Egentokun in a contribution titled: ‘It is time for state police in Nigeria’. His words at the weekend:
It dates to the First Republic where the Premier of Western Region argued against the Unitary government that was operated. According to him, how could the Premier of a Region who oversaw security of the region be without the power to control the police force? Ever since, the agitation for state police has not abated. I recall that sometime in the ’80s, the Federal Government experimented with state police. All officers from Deputy Superintended of Police downward, including Inspectors and Rank and File were transferred to their states of origin. The result of the experiment was revealing. Some states did not have enough manpower. Others had more manpower than they required. But things have changed. With recruitment based on equal representation, the situation has improved.

Simply put: State Police does not mean the absence of a National Police Force. It means a locally controlled Police Force coexisting with the National Police Force. The police forces in the states will not be under the control or supervision of the Inspector General of Police. Rather, it will be the responsibilities of the governors of states to maintain law and order without the interference of the Inspector General of Police or the President. In other words, section 214 of the 1999 Constitution as amended, which provides for the whole country, Nigeria, a single Police Force and prohibits the establishment of any other police force for Nigeria must be further amended…

Concomitantly, section 215(3) of the 1999 Constitution as amended must be altered to remove the authorisation of the President or the Minister to give direction to the IGP on the maintenance of law and order and public safety throughout the country. Similarly, the proviso in section 215(4) of the Constitution, which requires that the directive given to the Commissioner of Police by the Governor of a State may be referred to the President has to be amended. This proviso has, in fact, to be deleted to have a State Police….

In the main, as it has been argued by various leader writers and columnists, the government should not be dissuaded by Egbetokun’s comments. It should study the models in other federal states where the police system is decentralised and adopt a workable one for Nigeria. There is a Forum of Federations, which has its Headquarters in Canada. Nigeria is a member of that Forum. It isn’t difficult to study the models in most of the world’s best economies.

It will be seen after all that in a federal state, a single police force is an aberration, a recipe for violence. In global context, the other 24 federal states operate decentralised policing in various models. As The Guardian (Nigeria) has written numerous times, the United Kingdom with a polulation of 67.9 million runs a unique unitary system. Specifically, there are 45 Territorial Police Forces in the UK and three (3) Special Police Forces: The British Transport Police, Ministry of Defence Police and Civil Nuclear Constabulary.

It isn’t therefore careless to tell those who are afraid of state police that decentralised policing has become quite urgent in the face of wanton criminality in the land. We are daily inundated with reports of killings, kidnappings, arson, cultism, banditry, armed robbery, cyber theft and violent Fulani herdsmen attacks.

And so because of the near collapse of the policing system, the Federal Government has deployed troops to the 36 states to combat criminality and allied matters. Yet the deployment has yielded little or meretricious results.

Have critics of state policing read a recent report and index of a national security tracker on criminality?

According to Beacon Intelligence, 2,583 people were killed and 2,164 were kidnapped in the first quarter of 2024. The National Security Tracker, a Project of the Foreign Relations Council stated that 5,135 persons were killed in the first seven months of Tinubu’s tenure. And you want the same Tinubu to continue business as usual and expect a different outcome? With a score of 98, The Fund for Peace ranks Nigeria as the 15th most vulnerable in the 2023 Fragile States Index.

All told, Egbetokun’s position cannot override the groundswell of opinion of former leaders such as Goodluck Jonathan, who at the National Assembly session, stressed that the establishment of state police was non-negotiable, referencing its acceptance at the 2014 National Conference.

Therefore, Tinubu must not allow the Egentokun in most of his allies to derail the process of establishing state police sooner than later. And so to prevent abuse as feared, state legislators should make laws that exclude state police from the overbearing influence of the governors who should organise competitive appointments of state police chiefs and regular payment of salaries and other emoluments. State police is an idea whose time has indeed come. Egbetokun’s opinion is just full of sound and fury and so should signify nothing at this time.